Lady F TV - My Youtube Channel, Weekly Market Outlook

NFP data. EUR/USD analysis & trading forecast for 08 – 12 July 2019

      Guys, how do you like last week’s NFP data? Amazing, isn’t it? The forecast was 160k, fact – 224k. But there is no growth in wages. That is not good. I know many traders were skeptical about dollar rise because of dovish Federal Reserve tone. Anyway, we shorted as per previous EUR/USD forecast and made nice profits. It is not the point if Fed is dovish. The main thing – is it more or less dovish than other central banks. People still don’t like to compare. There is no other way to understand the money flow. You have to think out of the box. US economy is still stronger than the European. That’s all you need to know to understand pair direction. Then use technical analysis to find an entry point in that direction.

      Some of our targets were reached last week. 1.11850 and 1.11650 are still pending. I believe the market will hit it coming week. I have to admit EUR/USD is oversold. So, pullback before that range would be normal. I hate to make forecasts on pullbacks. They are always tricky. Book study suggest a retest of 1.1270. But the market doesn’t have to follow those studies at all. So, before taking new trade in managed accounts, I would just wait for a clear rejection. 

      I want to pay your attention to daily chat. There is one interesting thing. On March 20 – 21, the double top has been formed. This setup is also beginning of the new wave (June 24 – 25 is lower high). Very often such price action is an indication that the market will move to 2.618 Fibo that is near 1.0750. Well, there are no rules in trading. But keep the possibility in mind. Cycles suggest we have a few more months before a trend reversal. So, yes, big chances we will see slow drifting down to that range. But it will be choppy. Then finally big multiyear uptrend… Well, let’s take it step by step 🙂

Happy trading week!