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EUR/USD analysis & trading forecast for 15 – 19 April

      As it was forecasted last week EUR/USD made the corrective move up, giving nice rejection on Friday. During the week few economic reports were released. EU data was a bit better than expected. But still nothing special. Besides such reports are unable to change the big trend. 

      Coming week we keep an eye on German PMI. But I am thinking about two important events that could take place. The World Trade Organization hasn’t officially recommended a penalty for the EU yet as well as the US didn’t push ahead with the tariffs. Well, I am not saying this will happen. But a positive outcome is already priced in and if WTO or the US take an action, get ready for a flash crash. Meanwhile, technical analysis supposes slow drifting down.

       Based on rejection we saw on Friday from 1.13200, we have to see the distribution phase next. My swing targets are still 1.11200 – 1.11000. I am not a big fan of short-term trading. But if you are, watch at 1.1270, 12150 and 1.1175 and build your strategy accordingly. I mentioned range near 1.1100 should give an opportunity to load longs. But don’t get me wrong, I am not talking about trend reversal yet. I expect a significant pullback to 1.13700 – 1.14000. This is it. We will see a trend reversal in 3 – 6 months. So, keep that in mind, if you are trading on small time frames and avoid traps. I keep my trading signals subscribers updated about all changes as always. Besides, this Wednesday I am going to explain to you why a fixed deposit is not an option for a smart investor. So, don’t miss out!

Happy trading!