Gold weekly outlook for 15 – 19 October 2018. Analysis and forecast
Congratulation to trading signals subscribers and owners of managed accounts with booking profits in Gold shorts and longs. Well, gold move run was more strong than I expected. But it wasn’t technical, it was result of equities sell off. In 2 sessions Dow lost 1300 points. It was second big decline this year. First one happened in February. Future of gold depends on how soon stock market will recover. Based on weekly closing we should expect bounce up in Dow and one more decline.
So, gold should pullback this week and let’s think what’s next… I see 2 main levels to watch. First one is 1211 and I think it will be breached (maybe not once, but after few knocks). But the most important level is 1205 – make it or break it. Strong rejection will open the door for 1240. But in this case we will see more sell off in stock market. 1190 – 1180 will be on the cards after 1205 gets breached. Holding Dow above 26k will renew gold correlations with DXY. And as you know technical price of gold should be near 1195 as for now.
I want to pay your attention to reasons of stock market decline. I know all media are referring to trade war with China and interest rates hike. What a joke, guys! Such an old news that have been already priced in. But as you know big players always use media to manipulate traders and their decisions. Real reason of equities sell off is coming elections. Investors are loosing confidence and are afraid democrats have big chances to win.
I can tell you for sure there will be a lot of speculations around it. And as result trading will be more difficult. So, the best what you can do is to cash out your positions after 5 – 10 dollars move to secure your profits. That’s the smartest money management in this situation. I want to remind you about huge government debts of many countries, including US. Combined with possible equities break down it will put world economy into much worse situation that 2008. We still have chance to delay this moment for 1 more year. But be cautious and don’t miss the train!