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EUR/USD weekly outlook and analysis for 01-05 October, 2018

Oh boy, what a boring month for Gold and EUR traders it was! But it gave us very good scalping opportunities. So, all managed accounts got very good profits. Congratulations to investors!

Well, interest rates are raised. What to expect now in October? I think nothing will change. Fed dot plot indicates next interest rates hike in December. Investors already priced in 72% of chance. So, market will still be focused in US monetary policy. Nonfarm payrolls report has to be released this week. But I don’t think it will change market direction. Market expects to see softer numbers due to seasonal factor. So, max what we will get is a jerk reaction. I think special attention has to be paid to Euro zone. Yes, Germany are doing very well, economy is strong etc. But Europe has one serious problem – Italy. New government decided on 2.6% deficit target for next year while EU was expecting 1.6 – 2%. The difference is really significant. Italy now is main risk factor for euro currency. Keep an eye on it! Now let’s have a look at technical picture.

At beginning of this week I expect to see consolidation 1.16400 – 1.1550. Based on my EW count I will be looking for rejection at 1.1640 and go short for 1.1550. Look at price action as we can get signal a bit lower or higher (10 – 30 pips). Don’t miss it! From 1.1550 I expect to get buy signal with target 1.17250 and ABC formation. As always I don’t put pending orders and will be looking at price action to confirm my forecast and enter the market. Remember, no matter how good your calculation are, price action is the most important. Don’t ignore it!

Few words about gold trading forecast. Monthly closing indicates more pressure in October. But I smell something fishy there. So, I am not ready to take positional trades and will stick to scalping for now, giving more preference to shorts. If any trend reversals happen, my trading signals subscribers  will be first to take advantage of it.

Good luck and good trading!