This week I decided to make Crude Oil market overview and forecast, as we are so close to my TP target.
Last week was difficult for Crude Oil. However, I hold my long positions since September, as we are still in an uptend. My swing target is at $70. But based on recent COT reports, big players are increasing their net long position. Taking it into account, market can outperform my expectations and go above $70.
So, I keep an eye on all data and possibly will hold my longs much longer. But for now I expect deep correction from $70. I don’t like to predict pullback levels. I prefer to watch price action and volumes. However, I will not be surprised to see $20 – $30 drop. Despite of it, main trend for Oil remains bullish. After correction I will accumulate longs again.
Those of you, who follow me for a long time, or own bigger managed accounts, know that I expect big gains in coming 2 -3 years in Oil market and all energy sector.
Main factors that influenced prices last week were U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly inventories report, a survey on OPEC’s commitment to its program to cut production and U.S. Dollar which rose because of rising U.S. Treasury yields.
So, price move next week depends on the strength or weakness in the U.S. Dollar. As based on general technical analysis price can bounce in last week range. Drop in Venezuelan oil output will support uptrend in Crude Oil. The only unpleasant surprise for Oil bulls can be done by US Dollar. Last week USD recovered from it’s low, but it wasn’t enough to crash Oil.
Oil is great instrument for middle term investments. But as for me it’s difficult to trade intraday and to be honest doesn’t make much sense.
So, for now I am waiting for good price to book profits and opportunity to accumulate longs again from lower levels. Will update all trading signals subscribers with entry technic in Crude Oil.